Geopolitical Risks in African Production Areas Continue to Escalate SHFE Tin Returns to the 300,000 Yuan Mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on November 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2601 contract fluctuated at highs amid a tight supply-demand balance. Although prices came under pressure during the night session as some bulls took profits, market sentiment gradually stabilized during the day. At the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract held above the 300,000 yuan/mt level, with the trading center slightly higher than the previous day's settlement price, continuing the recent pattern of high volatility.

Recently, geopolitical risks in African producing areas have intensified abruptly. Key tin mining regions in the eastern DRC, including North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Haut-Uele, are in a state of conflict with high security risks. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a warning advising citizens to evacuate. Although current information indicates that mining operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC, the world's third-largest tin mine, have not been directly impacted so far, there is widespread market concern that future logistics and transportation costs in the conflict-affected areas will increase significantly, posing a severe challenge to supply chain stability.

In the international market, the three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed strong performance during the day, leading gains in the base metals sector. By midday, LME tin's latest price was quoted at $38,260/mt, up $335 from the previous trading session, a gain of 0.88%. The intraday high reached $38,380/mt, reflecting strengthened expectations in the international market for marginal improvements in tin supply and demand. For the afternoon session, SHFE tin is expected to continue fluctuating at highs, with price resilience supported by fragile supply and low inventory contending against upward resistance from spot market caution towards high prices and diverging demand.